Foreseeing a Breakthrough in It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. -Henri Poincare Few inventions have had greater social and economic conse-quences than Johann Gutenberg s printing press, technol-ogy that appeared in 1456 and enabled the printed word to transform the mediaeval world. The Renaissance, Reformation and the Industrial Revolution, with their extraordinary impacts on communities, were driven by this breakthrough. Now an equally transforming development - new information technologies are changing communication again, with sudden and surprising consequences. As Canadian professor Marshall McLuhan noted: The medium is the message. The evidence is everywhere. Humanity is very lucky. Just when we are facing the greatest challenges in human history such as global warming, we now have the Internet and its subsystem, the World Wide Web. Both enable immediate access to new knowledge, one to one communication anywhere in the world, and the possibility for collaborative problem solving, and improved decision-making. Sociologists studying this phenomenon are saying that while they don t yet fully understand what is happening, something is stirring globally, that may be profound. More and more we are seeing open source approaches being developed, where large numbers of volunteers, are making their services freely available on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia and the free computer operating system Linux. While our ultimate problems are political with conflicts over values, interests and power, open source methods provide a new way to experiment with new ideas, create scenarios, and develop trusted alliances with like-minded people. Major improvements require changes in management concepts and methods so new possibilities can emerge. Consider value-based silviculture: it is management intensive, meaning informa-tion intensive. It is not dependent on high-cost external inputs such as fertilizers. Information resources have a profound advantage over physical resources. The more information available and the more it is shared, the more capacity in the knowledge economy to achieve new things. Physical resources are consumed with use; the more we use, the less we have. Information resources are regenerative; they overcome scarcity. As a living system such as a forest approaches ecological limits, it adapts, incorporates information into its structures, making them more effective and efficient. That is why slow-growing trees on low-quality sites, with high initial stocking, harvested after extended rotations and frequent light thinnings, produce high-quality, dense wood with high ring count, small, tight green knots. That s why there is stronger wood, albeit in smaller sizes. That is value-based silviculture at work. While we have no specific knowledge of the future forest because it has not arrived yet, we can develop insight about the present and foresight about what may happen. The key to understand-ing both is to know the dynamics of the big picture, and to become skilled at spotting opportunities. By understanding the dynamics of change, in the markets and in the forests, our ability to foresee what may happen is enhanced. Our world is undergoing a profound transformation to the knowl-edge economy. But change is never easy. Institutions reflect the culture. Following the Second World War and the Korean War, westerners saw a future with an emphasis on predictability and stability, goals that were reflected in our forest management theories and practices. But Peter Drucker, the guru of modern management, could see that the postwar world was constantly changing and that organizations needed better ways to respond. Drucker s management by objectives (MBO) was widely embraced. It focused on forward movement and individual accountability. MBO practitioners developed strategy from the inside out, with little attention to external factors. Alas, stability and predictability in the markets and in the forests have turned out to be institutional fictions. Values based management is the successor to MBO. We know now that results are externally driven in a changing world. Quality is determined in the market place by the buyer, not the producer. During the 1970 s and 1980 s, rapid advances in telecommunica-tions and other technologies created new markets, new industries, and a new generation of foreign and domestic competitors. Foresight is the ability to see what is emerging, to understand the dynamics of the larger context and to recognize emerging conditions. The future forest management system will require at least four types of knowledge. In order of increasing importance these are: KNOW-WHAT: This is the content of a discipline a practi-tioner must master through education and certification. This knowledge is essential but not sufficient. KNOW-HOW: This is the ability to apply the know what knowledge to solve real problems and implement effective and efficient solutions; KNOW-WHY: This is deep knowledge of the interconnected web of cause-and-effect relationships underlying a discipline. What initially may appear to be an obstacle, when understood in its larger context, may not actually be an obstacle. Know-why enables practitioners to solve larger and more complex problems while creating results with exceptional value; KNOW-WHERE-TO: This is the knowledge needed to get the mission of the organization right, so that policy and decision makers can be confident the actions they take will result in the impacts and outcomes they really want. An inspired image of the future forest is important in value-based silviculture; even more important is that it be informed by relevant information. Where what was intended to happen, does happen, it is most likely to occur when the merits of all alternatives are examined, the preferred one is chosen, and results are monitored with feedback to the decision maker. With new telecommunica-tions technology opening up new opportunities in the markets and in the forests, there is much good work to do.
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